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MidHudsonWeather.com
Serving Orange, Ulster, Sullivan, Dutchess, Putnam, Columbia & Greene Counties
Serving Orange, Ulster, Sullivan, Dutchess, Putnam, Columbia & Greene Counties
Watches and Warnings: (CLICKABLE LINK BELOW)
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CURRENT RADAR
(click to enlarge) *Radar courtesy of Accuweather.com
Local Poughkeepsie Radar.
Detailed Weather Update: (Mon 5/20 10:40pm)
A sad day in the weather world... and in America in general. If you've watched the news (any news channel) in the past 24 hours, we had some deadly tornadoes late Sunday... and now even worse tornadoes on Monday in Oklahoma. This spring has seen near record low tornado activity in the US, but this outbreak just goes to show you that it only takes 1 outbreak to erase that. When lives are lost, especially on such a large scale, it doesn't seem to matter how quiet the season has been. It's just awful...
As for our weather... an early summer preview on hand for the next 2 days. While the temperatures won't be record breaking or anything like that... they will be a good 10 degrees above normal. Add to that a little humidity, and the chance of afternoon thunderstorms... and you've got yourself a little taste of summer.
I know many people could do without the humidity, but it won't be that bad truthfully. It won't be oppressive... it will just be a bit more humid than we've been used to for the last 6 months. Too bad that this is occurring in the middle of the work week.
The best chance of thunderstorms looks to be Thursday. A cold front will push through, bringing a sharp change of air mass. The result could be some strong to severe thunderstorms for our area on Thursday. Something I'm watching very closely.
Looking forward to Memorial Day weekend, the cold front pushing through on Thursday could leave us with some very cold air. Highs in the low and mid 60s seem possible for Friday and Saturday, gradually moderating toward the 70s by Sunday and Monday. But in general, the weather looks nice for the holiday weekend (for now)....
2013 Poughkeepsie Precipitation Breakdown (thru May 20th).
Average Actual Difference
January: 3.08" 2.05" -1.03"
February: 2.66" 1.61" -1.05"
March: 3.57" 1.48" -2.09"
April: 3.78" 1.32" -2.46"
May(so far): 2.52" 1.67" -0.85"
YTD 15.61" 8.13" -7.48" (-47.9%)
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A sad day in the weather world... and in America in general. If you've watched the news (any news channel) in the past 24 hours, we had some deadly tornadoes late Sunday... and now even worse tornadoes on Monday in Oklahoma. This spring has seen near record low tornado activity in the US, but this outbreak just goes to show you that it only takes 1 outbreak to erase that. When lives are lost, especially on such a large scale, it doesn't seem to matter how quiet the season has been. It's just awful...
As for our weather... an early summer preview on hand for the next 2 days. While the temperatures won't be record breaking or anything like that... they will be a good 10 degrees above normal. Add to that a little humidity, and the chance of afternoon thunderstorms... and you've got yourself a little taste of summer.
I know many people could do without the humidity, but it won't be that bad truthfully. It won't be oppressive... it will just be a bit more humid than we've been used to for the last 6 months. Too bad that this is occurring in the middle of the work week.
The best chance of thunderstorms looks to be Thursday. A cold front will push through, bringing a sharp change of air mass. The result could be some strong to severe thunderstorms for our area on Thursday. Something I'm watching very closely.
Looking forward to Memorial Day weekend, the cold front pushing through on Thursday could leave us with some very cold air. Highs in the low and mid 60s seem possible for Friday and Saturday, gradually moderating toward the 70s by Sunday and Monday. But in general, the weather looks nice for the holiday weekend (for now)....
2013 Poughkeepsie Precipitation Breakdown (thru May 20th).
Average Actual Difference
January: 3.08" 2.05" -1.03"
February: 2.66" 1.61" -1.05"
March: 3.57" 1.48" -2.09"
April: 3.78" 1.32" -2.46"
May(so far): 2.52" 1.67" -0.85"
YTD 15.61" 8.13" -7.48" (-47.9%)
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SNOWFALL COMPARISON:
Normal Annual Poughkeepsie Snowfall: 38.9"
Actual '12 - '13 Poughkeepsie Snowfall: 40.9"
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SNOWFALL COMPARISON:
Normal Annual Poughkeepsie Snowfall: 38.9"
Actual '12 - '13 Poughkeepsie Snowfall: 40.9"
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MHW.com Storm Updates on : 
Follow as a fan, and stay on top of the storm
Follow as a fan, and stay on top of the storm
**Get notified of pending Winter Storms by e-mail**
For the 2012 - 2013 winter season, I will continue to notify readers by e-mail of pending winter storms. .
To get on the list, email me at : bill@midhudsonweather.com.
E-mails are sent when a Winter Storm Watch or Warning is issued. This option gives you 48 to 72 hours notice, as you are notified when the Watch is issued, and notified again if a Warning is issued.
Please note: E-mails are issued for major storms, where > 5" of snow is expected. Smaller scale storms will not generate an e-mail alert.
Feel free to e-mail me at any point to be added or removed from this list.
'12 - '13 Winter Storm Forecast Accuracy
Solid Forecasts - 9 Accuracy = 81.82%
Blown Forecasts - 2
Push - 0
3/7/13 Upper Level Redemption
| Forecast | Result | |
| Timeline: | Snow start: 4-8pm Mix after 12am, then taper before sunrise, Steady again mid AM - early PM |
Steady snow Starts 5-7pm Mix & Taper off 1-3am Sleet/rain steady 9am Changes to Snow and ends around noon |
| Snowfall Forecast: | 3" to 6" South I-84 4" to 8" North I-84 6" to 12" mountains |
4" to 6" on average across entire region |
| Consistency: | Was on "vacation" until 36hrs prior to storm, first forecast was final forecast. | |
| Impact: | Wet roads prior to sunset, quickly slick & snow covered after dark Treacherous Travel Many delays, some closures |
Roads extremely icy after dark. Cars off roads, numerous accidents. Lots of delays Some school closings |
Scores
Timeline: 4.0
Snowfall Forecast: 3.5
Consistency: 4.0
Impact: 4.0
STORM GPA : 3.88
GPA style, add category grades and divide by 4 to get score:
| A | B | C | D | F |
| 4.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 |
Passing (Solid) forecast is a GPA of 2.7 (B-) or higher
2012 - 2013 Report Card
| Date | Grade |
| 11/7/12 | 3.10 |
| 11/27/12 | 3.00 |
| 12/26/12 | 3.73 |
| 12/29/12 | 3.85 |
| 1/16/13 | 3.80 |
| 1/28/13 | 3.75 |
| 2/8/13 | 3.30 |
| 2/26/13 | 2.45 |
| 3/6/13 | 2.00 |
| 3/7/13 | 3.18 |
| 3/19/13 | 3.88 |
| Season GPA: | 3.28" |
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Bio...
I graduated from Wallkill Senior HS. I graduated from SUNY Albany with a Bachelor of Science in Accounting. I took a couple meteorology courses in college, but chose not to major in meteorology because I didn't want to ruin my passion for the weather by making it a 'job'... I have been forecasting the weather since 1992. I am NOT a licensed meteorologist, but have 20 years experience in weather forecasting and knowledge of weather phenomenon. I created this website in 2008, because having lived in the valley all my life, I know that a detailed, reliable forecast is sometimes difficult to come by, especially in the winter. My goal is to provide a forecast that is centered on the Mid Hudson Valley... get you the info in a direct and meaningful format... and provide a little entertainment along the way. I do have a full time job, and I operate this site in my free time... but my dedication is obvious. Hope you enjoy it!
MHW.com 5 Day Forecast
| Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Sat | |
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| Isolated T-Storms 40% |
Scattered T-Storms 50% |
Strong PM T-Storms 70% |
Scattered Showers 40% |
Clouds & Sun |
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| High | Mid 80s | Mid 80s | High 70s | Low 60s | Mid 60s |
| Low | Low 60s | Low 60s | Mid 50s | High 30s | High 30s |
Detailed Local Forecast
Tuesday: Mix of clouds and sun, an isolated afternoon thundershower is possible, very warm. High in the mid 80s. Chance of rain 40%.
Tuesday Night: Scattered evening showers and thundershowers. Low in the low 60s. Chance of rain 50%.
Wednesday: Warm and humid, with scattered afternoon thunderstorms. High in the mid 80s. Chance of rain 50%.
Wednesday Night: Scattered evening showers and thundershowers. Low in the low 60s. Chance of rain 50%.
Thursday: Mix of clouds and sun in the morning, strong to severe thunderstorms possible in the afternoon. High in the mid to upper 70s. Chance of rain 70%.
(Updated: Monday 10:30pm)
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Today's Averages
High Temperature: 73º Low Temperature: 48º
May so far : - 0.6º vs. Average
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Go Behind the Forecast
"PURE SPECULATION"
( * UPDATED - SAT 3/23 * )
MHW.com : BEYOND THE BASICS
posted: Monday 5/20/13 @ 11:05pm
* * Quiet Tornado Season Turns Deadly * *
I hate severe weather. I hate it. It's fascinating in terms of the meteorological aspect. But in terms of just how powerful mother nature can be, and how quickly it can turn your world upside down, it is clearly my least favorite type of weather.
Today (Monday), for the first time in 2013, a very strong jet stream has combined with 2 clashing air masses, to prime the atmosphere with strong rotation, and you have seen the result.
Tornadoes are very common in the mid-western region of the United States... I don't think I'm telling you anything you don't already know. This season, has seen nearly record low activity in terms of US tornadoes (lowest in at least 20 years). It's been so cold in the central part of the country this spring... that the conditions for tornadoes have not been present.
But all it takes is one day of strong atmospheric instability, to create a large scale tornado outbreak. In 2 days, we've seen at least 2 EF4 tornadoes hit populated areas. An EF4 tornado can have winds between 160mph and 200mph. The images are stark... you can see the immense damage that an EF4 tornado can cause.
So often in our country's history... tornadoes of this magnitude occur in rural areas, and the loss of life is minimalized. But every so often, a vicious tornado of EF3 or stronger takes aim on a highly populated area. The results are heartbreaking. I'm not going to go into detail about the tragedies, you can find those on your own.
Severe weather is scientifically fascinating. The dynamics of a tornado or other severe thunderstorm can be awe inspiring. But for me... when I think of severe weather, especially tornadoes, images like those of today come to mind. Mother nature is beautiful... but she is also all powerful. My thoughts and prayers go out to everyone whose life has been altered by today's events......
(image: none )..
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* * * INFORMATION LINKS * * *
GLOSSARY OF TERMS
2012 - 2013 SNOW TOTALS
2011 - 2012 SNOW TOTALS
2010 - 2011 SNOW TOTALS
BEYOND THE BASICS ARCHIVES
NY-ALERT.GOV - (statewide advisories) †
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Copyright . Bill Potter. All rights reserved
